DEA model for optimising economic policies of European Union countries
Main Article Content
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17979/ejge.2026.15.1.12116Abstract
This study focuses on the problem of optimal choice between unemployment and inflation in view of the international position of the country. The proposed DEA model was tested on the example of statistics of European Union countries for 2023. This year, the efficient frontier of countries' states (the international Phillips DEA line) was formed by the Czechia, Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium. National Phillips DEA lines were built by parallel moving of the international frontier. Optimal states were determined by minimising the quadratic social loss function. A point with minimum indicator levels (the “ideal” state) was the centre of social loss curves. Deviations of actual states from the “ideal” one were normalised by dividing by the difference in coordinates of this state and the binomial mean point of efficient countries. According to the proposed optimisation efficiency coefficient, the best strategy for Bulgaria, Ireland, Malta and Slovenia would be to move directly to the state of the international optimum. Germany and the Netherlands would not benefit from optimising their state. The proposed model can be used in countries' economic policies and their ranking.
Keywords:
Article Details
References
Aikman, D., Giese, J., Kapadia, S., & McLeay, M. (2023). Targeting financial stability: Macroprudential or monetary policy? International Journal of Central Banking, 19(1), 159–242. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3384064
Barnichon, R., & Mesters, G. (2023). Evaluating policy institutions: 150 years of US monetary policy (BSE Working Paper No. 1410). Barcelona School of Economics. https://bw.bse.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/1410-file.pdf
Benchimol, J. (2024). Central bank objectives, monetary policy rules, and limited information. Journal of Macroeconomics, 80, Article 103604. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103604
Benigno, P., Canofari, P., Di Bartolomeo, G., & Messori, M. (2023). The ECB’s new inflation target from a short- and long-term perspective. Journal of Policy Modeling, 45(2), 286–304. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.03.004
Bonciani, D., & Oh, J. (2025). Optimal monetary policy mix at the zero lower bound. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 170, Article 105001. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2024.105001
Buchmann, M. (2009). Nonparametric hybrid Phillips curves based on subjective expectations: Estimates for the euro area (ECB Working Paper No. 1119). European Central Bank. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1512364
Caldara, D., Ferrante, F., Iacoviello, M., Prestipino, A., & Queralto, A. (2024). The international spillovers of synchronous monetary tightening. Journal of Monetary Economics, 141, 127–152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.10.017
Cancelo, J. R., Diego, V., & Sánchez-Santos, J. M. (2011). Interest rate setting at the ECB: Individual preferences and collective decision making. Journal of Policy Modeling, 33(6), 804–820. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2011.08.017
Chadha, J. S., & Schellekens, P. (1999). Monetary policy loss functions: Two cheers for the quadratic (Bank of England Monetary Analysis Working Paper No. 101). Bank of England. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.186149
Chen, S., Devereux, M. B., Shi, K., & Xu, J. (2023). Consumption heterogeneity and monetary policy in an open economy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 140, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.07.001
Corsetti, G., Dedola, L., & Leduc, S. (2023). Exchange rate misalignment and external imbalances: What is the optimal monetary policy response? Journal of International Economics, 144, Article 103771. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103771
Deák, S., Levine, P., & Pham, S. T. (2024). Simple mandates, monetary rules, and trend-inflation. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 28(4), 757–790. https://doi.org/10.1017/S136510052300024X
Djeutem, E., He, M., Reza, A., & Zhang, Y. (2022). Household heterogeneity and the performance of monetary policy frameworks (Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper No. 2022-12). Bank of Canada. https://doi.org/10.34989/swp-2022-12
Dorich, J., Mendes, R., & Zhang, Y. (2021). The Bank of Canada’s “horse race” of alternative monetary policy frameworks: Some interim results from model simulations (Bank of Canada Staff Discussion Paper No. 2021-13). Bank of Canada. https://doi.org/10.34989/sdp-2021-13
Dziuda, W., & Pflueger, C. (2021). A model of politics and the Central Bank. HEC Paris, Faculty & Research. https://www.hec.edu/sites/default/files/documents/DziudaPfluegerPoliticalFed_20210413.pdf
Eser, F., Karadi, P., Lane, P. R., Moretti, L., & Osbat, C. (2020). The Phillips curve at the ECB (ECB Working Paper Series No. 2400). European Central Bank. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2400~6e8bfb6fd2.en.pdf
European Central Bank. (2021). Review of macroeconomic modelling in the Eurosystem: Current practices and scope for improvement (ECB Occasional Paper Series No. 267). https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op267~63c1f094d6.en.pdf
European Central Bank. (n.d.). Two per cent inflation target. Retrieved April 22, 2026, from https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/pricestab/html/index.en.html
Eurostat. (2024a). HICP – inflation rate [tec00118] [Data set]. https://doi.org/10.2908/TEC00118
Eurostat. (2024b). Unemployment rate – annual data [tipsun20] [Data set]. https://doi.org/10.2908/TIPSUN20
Florio, A., Siena, D., & Zago, R. (2024). Global value chains and the Phillips curve: A challenge for monetary policy (Banque de France Working Paper No. 970). Banque de France. https://www.banque-france.fr/system/files/2024-12/WP970.pdf
Gross, I., & Leigh, A. (2022). Assessing Australian monetary policy in the twenty-first century. Economic Record, 98(322), 271–295. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.12689
Haavio, M., Heikkinen, J., Jalasjoki, P., Kilponen, J., Paloviita, M., & Vänni, I. (2024). Reading between the lines: Uncovering asymmetry in the central bank loss function (Bank of Finland Research Discussion Paper No. 6/2024). Bank of Finland. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4869459
Hinterlang, N., & Tänzer, A. (2021). Optimal monetary policy using reinforcement learning (Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 51/2021). Deutsche Bundesbank. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4977979
Hoon, H. T., & Ho, K. W. (2007). Distance to frontier and the big swings of the unemployment rate: What room is left for monetary policy? (Kiel Working Paper No. 1347). Kiel Institute for the World Economy. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/17861/1/kap1347.pdf
Ida, D., & Iiboshi, H. (2021). The interaction of forward guidance in a two-country New Keynesian model (MPRA Paper No. 106752). Munich Personal RePEc Archive. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/106752/1/MPRA_paper_106752.pdf
Ingves, S. (2011). Flexible inflation targeting in theory and practice. BIS Central Bankers’ Speeches. https://www.bis.org/review/r110517c.pdf
Itskhoki, O., & Mukhin, D. (2023). Optimal exchange rate policy (CESifo Working Paper No. 10837). CESifo. https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp10837.pdf
Karadi, P., Nakov, A., Nuno, G., Pasten, E., & Thaler, D. (2024). Strike while the iron is hot: Optimal monetary policy with a nonlinear Phillips curve (CESifo Working Paper No. 11372). CESifo. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4991920
Kiley, M. T. (2024). Monetary policy strategies to foster price stability and a strong labor market (Finance and Economics Discussion Series No. 2024-033). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.033
Mayer, T. (2003). The macroeconomic loss function: A critical note. Applied Economics Letters, 10(6), 347–349. https://doi.org/10.1080/1350485032000056891
Mazelis, F., Motto, R., & Ristiniemi, A. (2023). Monetary policy strategies for the euro area: Optimal rules in the presence of the effective lower bound (ECB Working Paper No. 2797). European Central Bank. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4396101
McKay, A., & Wolf, C. K. (2023). What can time-series regressions tell us about policy counterfactuals? Econometrica, 91(5), 1695–1725. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA21045
McLeay, M., & Tenreyro, S. (2019). Optimal inflation and the identification of the Phillips curve. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 34(1), 199–255. https://doi.org/10.1086/707181
Pfajfar, D., & Winkler, F. (2024). Households’ preferences over inflation and monetary policy tradeoffs (Finance and Economics Discussion Series No. 2024-036). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.036
Pham, B. T., & Sala, H. (2022). Cross-country connectedness in inflation and unemployment: Measurement and macroeconomic consequences. Empirical Economics, 62, 1123–1146. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-021-02052-0
Prachowny, M. F. J. (1990). International comparisons of macroeconomic performance. Applied Economics, 22(2), 261–273. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849000000067
Sakr, M. F., Selim, K. S., & Taha, S. G. (2024). Measuring countries relative efficiencies in using development assistance: A data envelopment analysis approach. Future Business Journal, 10, Article 40. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-024-00325-5
Sarlin, P., & von Schweinitz, G. (2021). Optimizing policymakers’ loss functions in crisis prediction: Before, within or after? Macroeconomic Dynamics, 25(1), 100–123. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100518000603
Svensson, L. E. O. (2009). Evaluating monetary policy (NBER Working Paper No. 15385). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w15385
Teryoshin, Y. (2023). Historical performance of rule-like monetary policy. Journal of International Money and Finance, 130, Article 102766. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102766
Yuan, H., & Miller, S. M. (2009). Understanding central bank loss functions: Implied and delegated targets (Department of Economics Working Paper No. 2009-39). University of Connecticut. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1505784
Zagoruiko, I., & Petkova, L. (2022). Model of world technological and economic efficiency frontiers. Journal of International Studies, 15(2), 174–198. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2022/15-2/12

